2011 Leaders Division Predictions

Leaders Division Predictions

Division Champion: Penn State Nittany Lions (via head-to-head tiebreaker)

T1.)  Penn State Nittany Lions

Offense

The QB situation at PSU has both good and bad aspects.  On the bad side, not having a clear-cut #1 may prevent the offense from truly gelling.  The good side is that having two talented QB’s (both with experience) push each other and provide depth.  My gut tells me Rob Bolden will eventually get the nod.

WR Devon Smith, while at 4.2 – 40 yard dash speed, is a little over-rated in my opinion.  However, WR’s Moye and Brown are tall, rangy, and are both All-Big Ten caliber receivers.  The tandem of Redd and Beachum at RB will give PSU different styles of rushing attacks.  Redd is a burner with great moves.  Beachum is a brusier and in my opinion gives PSU a much needed boost in the Red Zone (where they stunk last year).  While lacking star power, the OL has had a lot of experience minus the RG spot.  They only gave up 12 sacks last year, so I expect them to be one of the best in the conference

Defense

The glaring weakness last year for Penn State was pass rush.  This year, DE’s Crawford and Lattimore return from injury and with help from Devon Still (DT) who I think will be an All-Big Ten selection, should be able to get pressure on the opposing QB’s.  Penn State has the best back seven in the country.  They are both experienced and deep.  LB Mauti reminds of PSU great Paul Posluzney.  CB D’Anton Lynn and S Nick Sukay played solid football last season and both may be All-Big Ten candidates at season’s end.  Penn State’s defense will be the best in the Big Ten (sorry Nebraska). 

Special Teams

PSU has to replace accurate K Colin Wagner, who in several games was heavily relied upon.  Though K/P Anthony Fera was the #2 K  recruit in the country, he starts the season under the cloud of a few off the field incidents.  In any case, the kicking game is shaky for PSU.  I like PSU’s returners and feel that they have a good stable of players who can make plays on special teams in general.

Schedule and Intangibles

Penn State has a Jeckyll and Hyde feel to it.  In eight of the first nine games, PSU will likely be favored.  I think this really will help PSU to prepare and gel for the final three game stretch, which is going to really test this team.  Luckily for Penn State, they get a perfectly placed week off before this stretch.  Alabama is too good, too early to win.  Though I think PSU is better top-to-bottom than Iowa, I’ll stick with the trend that PSU cannot get by the Hawks. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 10 – 2 (7-1)

Joe Paterno is the best predictor of Penn State’s success, and he believed last year that PSU was a year away from being a good team.  I trust Joe’s opinion and if 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008 are any indication, PSU seems to have a solid contending team about every three years.  I think the Leaders Division will be determined by the winner of PSU-Wisconsin game in Madison. 

Indiana State  – W

Alabama  – L

@ Temple – W

Eastern Michigan - W

@ Indiana – W

Iowa – L

Purdue – W

@ Northwestern – W

Illinois  – W

Bye Week

Nebraska – W

@ Ohio State – W

@ Wisconsin - W

T1.)  Wisconsin Badgers

Offense

I do not buy the Russell Wilson hype.  There… I said it.  He may have been a stud against the “So-called” defenses in the ACC, but Big Ten defenses will limit his success.  Considering injuries at the other 2 QB positions, I think his naming as a starter was more out of desperation.  I love RB’s Ball and White and think that they will churn up turf.  Wisconsin returns WR Toon, but not much else.  I always know Wisconsin can reload at OL, but Moffit and Carimi will not be so easily replaced.  I see a loss of offensive production for the Badgers.

Defense

Though the Badgers lose great DE Watt, they return 3 starters.  They also return LB Borland (from injury) and Taylor.  The loss of Brinkley and Valai hurt at DB, but Henry and Fenelus had a combined 14 pass breakups and 6 interceptions.  I think that the Badger defense ends up being better than last year’s team.

Special Teams

Other than the loss of Gilreath at returner, the Badgers return all of their specialists.  This in my opinion will end up winning one or two close ones for Wisconsin.  K Welch is one of the best in the conference, going 8 for 11 from 40 to 49 yards on field goals. 

Schedule and Intangibles

Wisconsin benefits from home games against Nebraska and Penn State, but are forced to travel on consecutive weeks against Michigan State and the Buckeyes.  The Badger’s bye week is too early to be useful and precedes lowly Indiana.  

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 11 – 1 (7-1)

I think that the Badgers are the most balanced team in the Big Ten, but their offense to me takes a major step back, which will put even more pressure on their defense and special teams.  That said, I picture Wisconsin will be vaulted to the forefront of the national picture after beating Nebraska.  I think that the stage will be set for the Wisconsin – Penn State showdown in Madison during the final weekend of Big Ten play.  I just think the Lions will be rolling at that point and playing free and easy, while the Badgers will be holding on with an unblemished record. 

UNLV  – W

Oregon State  – W
Northern Illinois  – W

South Dakota – W

Nebraska – W

Bye Week

Indiana – W

@ Michigan State – W

@ Ohio State – W

Purdue – W

@ Minnesota – W

@ Illinois – W

Penn State – L

2.)  Illinois Fighting Illini

Offense

I really am impressed with QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  He has the right combination of mobility and passing skills to really be a threat.  And the more experience he gets under his belt, the more dangerous he will be.  Offensive Line is above average, but no real All Big Ten Candidates.  I think the Illini running game should be above average under RB Jason Ford but the Illini lack quality specialists on the outside, which will really limit Scheelhaase’s potential this season.   

Defense

The Illini defense took a major hit via the Draft in the front seven.  I cannot see the DL or LB returning to similar form, so definitely a step back here.  The DB’s are solid and should provide some boost, but I think teams will be able to dominate the Illini on the ground, so the only Illini strength on defense will be somewhat neutralized. 

Special Teams

Derek Dimke is probably one of the three best kickers in the Big Ten.  That certainly will help the Illini out this season.  2 punters return, each with only a single punts worth of experience.  This will put added pressure on the Illini defense.  

Schedule and Intangibles

The Illini benefit from a pretty cushy early schedule.  They open with 5 straight home games and 6 out of 7 to start the year.  A trip to Happy Valley marks their only tough road trip.  The schedule gods were with the Zooker.

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 8-4 (5-3)

A good season by typical Illini standards, but still room for improvement.  Good enough to keep Zook off the chopping block and a step in the right direction.

Arkansas St. – W

South Dakota St. – W

Arizona St. – L

Western Michigan – W

Northwestern – W

@ Indiana – W

Ohio State – L

@ Purdue – W

@ Penn State – L

Bye Week

Michigan – W

Wisconsin – L

@ Minnesota – W

3.) Ohio State Buckeyes

Offense

Pryor comprised of 75 percent of the Buckeye offense.  Obviously, he will not be able to be replaced without some growing pains.  The Ohio State OL is pretty good and Ohio State’s RB’s should be able to have some success.  However, outside of Posey, I feel the Buckeyes lack talent on the outside.  I think that the loss of Pryor and the lack of a solid #2 receiver will make the Buckeye’s one-dimensional. 

Defense

If it wasn’t for what I consider just an above average Buckeye Defense, I’d probably have them go 5-7 for the season.  Ohio State features a good DL, but lose star Heyward.  Ohio State’s LBs are probably one of the weakest groups they have had in years.  Only one projected starter returns in the DB’s.  Even though the Buckeye’s tend to reload, I cannot see how this group lives up to previous standards, regardless of suspensions.

Special Teams

Ohio State lose their starting kicker but return their punter.  Both KR and PR also return.  Though Tressel is gone, it will be important for OSU to maintain good special teams in order to squeak out some close victories a la Tressel-ball. 

Schedule and Intangibles

The Buckeyes get a brutal schedule with road trips to Nebraska, Illinois, and the Big House.  In addition, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Penn State visit Columbus.  I think that all 6 of these schools are better than Ohio State this year, and would be shocked if Ohio State even split these games 3-3.  Add a trip to Miami (though weakened by suspension themselves) and a winning season I think proves difficult. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 7 – 5 (4-4)

I think that the suspensions and loss of Pryor/Tressell will hurt, even though the Buckeyes tend to reload each year.  Before Pryor was dismissed from the team, I felt that the suspensions were going to cost the Buckeyes 3 games.  When Pryor and Tressel were sent packing, I just cannot see the Buckeyes being a dominant force in 2011.  The Buckeye conference title streak comes to a bitter end.

Akron – W

Toledo – W

@ Miami (FL) – L

Colorado – W

Michigan State  - L

@ Nebraska – L

@ Illinois  – W

Bye Week

Wisconsin – L

Indiana – W

@ Purdue - W

Penn State – L

@ Michigan - W

4.) Purdue Boilermakers

Offense

Purdue’s offense never was healthy last year, with 3 ACL injuries to starters.  Injury again appears to have affected the Boiler’s QB, and apparently TerBush is getting the nod as the starter.  RB Bolden returns from injury, but no other real experience returns at RB.  Similarly, Purdue lacks skill and depth at the wideout.  Though the Boiler’s have an above average OL returning, Purdue’s offense is somewhat anemic, especially given the caliber of the Big Ten defenses they’ll face. 

Defense

The Boilermaker defense is projected to return 9 starters, however considering that the Boilermaker defense was one of the worst in the Big Ten, which may not be the best thing.  The loss of DE Kerrigan will hurt as he accounted for nearly one half of the team’s sacks.  I see them taking a step back in the pass rush, which seeps into the other facets of the defense.  I expect the back seven to have a solid year, but will suffer from the lack of a pass rush. 

Special Teams

Purdue returns their punter, kicker, and one returner.  That should help them put some points on the board and play a decent field position game.  

Schedule and Intangibles

The Boilermaker’s schedule blesses them with both Minnesota and Indiana on the schedule.  The second half of the schedule is brutal, getting the toughest competition the Big Ten can throw at it minus Sparty and the Cornhuskers.  A worthless bye week in week 4 doesn’t help them at all. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 5 – 7 (2-6)

The Boilermakers still cannot match the talent that the conference’s big boys bring.  I also think Danny Hope is not what Boiler nation was hoping for.  I think this is Hope’s last year, as the Boiler’s miss the post-season for the 5 straight year. 

Middle Tennessee – W

@ Rice – W

SE Missouri St. – W

Bye Week

Notre Dame – L

Minnesota – W

@ Penn State – L

Illinois  – L

@ Michigan -  L

@ Wisconsin – L

Ohio State – L

Iowa – L

@ Indiana – W

5.)  Indiana Hoosiers

Offense

The loss of Ben Chappell at QB hurts the Hoosiers big time.  The loss of wideouts Doss and Turner will reduce IU’s offensive firepower even more.  The offensive line looks solid but unspectacular, but should open holes for RB Darius Willis.  I see a big drop off in IU’s offensive production this year. 

Defense

The Hoosier defense is prepared to take a major step forward this season.  Five of the front seven return, and though IU’s defense was lacking last season, I think they’ll be able to hold their own against all but the most premiere of Big Ten offenses.  The biggest hole IU faces are in the DB’s which are bound to be somewhat improved, solely due to atrocious play in 2010.

Special Teams

IU’s special teams are somewhere between a weakness and a strength.  In other words, don’t expect  IU to win or lose many games based on special teams.  The loss of Doss as punt returner is going to be a major step back.

Schedule and Intangibles

The Hoosier’s schedule is brutal as only one of their Big Ten opponents was not bowl bound.  IU has the Badgers, the Hawkeyes, the Buckeyes, and the Spartans on the road.  New coach Kevin Wilson appears to be a good choice, but expect a season or two of adjustment prior to any real progress.

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 3 – 9 (0-8)

The Hoosiers were 5 – 7 last season, but only beat one Big Ten team (Purdue in OT).  With a tough schedule, new coach, and loss of Chappell and Doss, I cannot see this team improving. 

Ball State – W

Virginia – L

South Carolina St. – W

@ North Texas – W

Penn State – L

Illinois – L

@ Wisconsin – L

@ Iowa -  L

Northwestern – L

@ Ohio State – L

Bye Week

@ Michigan State – L

Purdue - L