Week 1 Predictions

Record to date: 0-0 (0 %)
Record last week: 0-0 (0%)

Week#1 Predictions
My straight up picks for Week #1.  I'll try not to embarrass myself.  Only 2 Big Ten games on the road should limit any drama.  I think that the conference goes 11-1 this week. 

Winners
Illinois vs Arkansas State
Indiana vs Ball State
Iowa vs Tennessee Tech
Michigan vs Western Michigan
Michigan State vs Youngstown State
Nebraska vs Chattanooga
Northwestern @ Boston College (U)
Ohio State vs Akron
Penn State vs Indiana State
Purdue vs Middle Tennessee State
Wisconsin vs UNLV

Losers
Minnesota @ USC

U - Upset Alert (Game of the week that most likely could result in an upset)

Conference Predictions

2011 Conference Predictions

Big Ten MVP: Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)

Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year: Kirk Cousins (QB, Michigan State)

Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year: Michael Mauti (LB, Penn State)

Big Ten Champion:  Penn State Nittany Lions over Michigan State Spartans in Big Ten Championship

I hate to seem like a homer, and tried my darndest to not pick Penn State, but defense wins championships.  Penn State will have the most dominant defense in the conference and as a result, I cannot see them losing to the Spartans in Indy. 

Big Ten Darkhorse Team:  Michigan Wolverines

If Michigan's defense can play at least "above-average," WATCH OUT.

2011 Leaders Division Predictions

Leaders Division Predictions

Division Champion: Penn State Nittany Lions (via head-to-head tiebreaker)

T1.)  Penn State Nittany Lions

Offense

The QB situation at PSU has both good and bad aspects.  On the bad side, not having a clear-cut #1 may prevent the offense from truly gelling.  The good side is that having two talented QB’s (both with experience) push each other and provide depth.  My gut tells me Rob Bolden will eventually get the nod.

WR Devon Smith, while at 4.2 – 40 yard dash speed, is a little over-rated in my opinion.  However, WR’s Moye and Brown are tall, rangy, and are both All-Big Ten caliber receivers.  The tandem of Redd and Beachum at RB will give PSU different styles of rushing attacks.  Redd is a burner with great moves.  Beachum is a brusier and in my opinion gives PSU a much needed boost in the Red Zone (where they stunk last year).  While lacking star power, the OL has had a lot of experience minus the RG spot.  They only gave up 12 sacks last year, so I expect them to be one of the best in the conference

Defense

The glaring weakness last year for Penn State was pass rush.  This year, DE’s Crawford and Lattimore return from injury and with help from Devon Still (DT) who I think will be an All-Big Ten selection, should be able to get pressure on the opposing QB’s.  Penn State has the best back seven in the country.  They are both experienced and deep.  LB Mauti reminds of PSU great Paul Posluzney.  CB D’Anton Lynn and S Nick Sukay played solid football last season and both may be All-Big Ten candidates at season’s end.  Penn State’s defense will be the best in the Big Ten (sorry Nebraska). 

Special Teams

PSU has to replace accurate K Colin Wagner, who in several games was heavily relied upon.  Though K/P Anthony Fera was the #2 K  recruit in the country, he starts the season under the cloud of a few off the field incidents.  In any case, the kicking game is shaky for PSU.  I like PSU’s returners and feel that they have a good stable of players who can make plays on special teams in general.

Schedule and Intangibles

Penn State has a Jeckyll and Hyde feel to it.  In eight of the first nine games, PSU will likely be favored.  I think this really will help PSU to prepare and gel for the final three game stretch, which is going to really test this team.  Luckily for Penn State, they get a perfectly placed week off before this stretch.  Alabama is too good, too early to win.  Though I think PSU is better top-to-bottom than Iowa, I’ll stick with the trend that PSU cannot get by the Hawks. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 10 – 2 (7-1)

Joe Paterno is the best predictor of Penn State’s success, and he believed last year that PSU was a year away from being a good team.  I trust Joe’s opinion and if 1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008 are any indication, PSU seems to have a solid contending team about every three years.  I think the Leaders Division will be determined by the winner of PSU-Wisconsin game in Madison. 

Indiana State  – W

Alabama  – L

@ Temple – W

Eastern Michigan - W

@ Indiana – W

Iowa – L

Purdue – W

@ Northwestern – W

Illinois  – W

Bye Week

Nebraska – W

@ Ohio State – W

@ Wisconsin - W

T1.)  Wisconsin Badgers

Offense

I do not buy the Russell Wilson hype.  There… I said it.  He may have been a stud against the “So-called” defenses in the ACC, but Big Ten defenses will limit his success.  Considering injuries at the other 2 QB positions, I think his naming as a starter was more out of desperation.  I love RB’s Ball and White and think that they will churn up turf.  Wisconsin returns WR Toon, but not much else.  I always know Wisconsin can reload at OL, but Moffit and Carimi will not be so easily replaced.  I see a loss of offensive production for the Badgers.

Defense

Though the Badgers lose great DE Watt, they return 3 starters.  They also return LB Borland (from injury) and Taylor.  The loss of Brinkley and Valai hurt at DB, but Henry and Fenelus had a combined 14 pass breakups and 6 interceptions.  I think that the Badger defense ends up being better than last year’s team.

Special Teams

Other than the loss of Gilreath at returner, the Badgers return all of their specialists.  This in my opinion will end up winning one or two close ones for Wisconsin.  K Welch is one of the best in the conference, going 8 for 11 from 40 to 49 yards on field goals. 

Schedule and Intangibles

Wisconsin benefits from home games against Nebraska and Penn State, but are forced to travel on consecutive weeks against Michigan State and the Buckeyes.  The Badger’s bye week is too early to be useful and precedes lowly Indiana.  

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 11 – 1 (7-1)

I think that the Badgers are the most balanced team in the Big Ten, but their offense to me takes a major step back, which will put even more pressure on their defense and special teams.  That said, I picture Wisconsin will be vaulted to the forefront of the national picture after beating Nebraska.  I think that the stage will be set for the Wisconsin – Penn State showdown in Madison during the final weekend of Big Ten play.  I just think the Lions will be rolling at that point and playing free and easy, while the Badgers will be holding on with an unblemished record. 

UNLV  – W

Oregon State  – W
Northern Illinois  – W

South Dakota – W

Nebraska – W

Bye Week

Indiana – W

@ Michigan State – W

@ Ohio State – W

Purdue – W

@ Minnesota – W

@ Illinois – W

Penn State – L

2.)  Illinois Fighting Illini

Offense

I really am impressed with QB Nathan Scheelhaase.  He has the right combination of mobility and passing skills to really be a threat.  And the more experience he gets under his belt, the more dangerous he will be.  Offensive Line is above average, but no real All Big Ten Candidates.  I think the Illini running game should be above average under RB Jason Ford but the Illini lack quality specialists on the outside, which will really limit Scheelhaase’s potential this season.   

Defense

The Illini defense took a major hit via the Draft in the front seven.  I cannot see the DL or LB returning to similar form, so definitely a step back here.  The DB’s are solid and should provide some boost, but I think teams will be able to dominate the Illini on the ground, so the only Illini strength on defense will be somewhat neutralized. 

Special Teams

Derek Dimke is probably one of the three best kickers in the Big Ten.  That certainly will help the Illini out this season.  2 punters return, each with only a single punts worth of experience.  This will put added pressure on the Illini defense.  

Schedule and Intangibles

The Illini benefit from a pretty cushy early schedule.  They open with 5 straight home games and 6 out of 7 to start the year.  A trip to Happy Valley marks their only tough road trip.  The schedule gods were with the Zooker.

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 8-4 (5-3)

A good season by typical Illini standards, but still room for improvement.  Good enough to keep Zook off the chopping block and a step in the right direction.

Arkansas St. – W

South Dakota St. – W

Arizona St. – L

Western Michigan – W

Northwestern – W

@ Indiana – W

Ohio State – L

@ Purdue – W

@ Penn State – L

Bye Week

Michigan – W

Wisconsin – L

@ Minnesota – W

3.) Ohio State Buckeyes

Offense

Pryor comprised of 75 percent of the Buckeye offense.  Obviously, he will not be able to be replaced without some growing pains.  The Ohio State OL is pretty good and Ohio State’s RB’s should be able to have some success.  However, outside of Posey, I feel the Buckeyes lack talent on the outside.  I think that the loss of Pryor and the lack of a solid #2 receiver will make the Buckeye’s one-dimensional. 

Defense

If it wasn’t for what I consider just an above average Buckeye Defense, I’d probably have them go 5-7 for the season.  Ohio State features a good DL, but lose star Heyward.  Ohio State’s LBs are probably one of the weakest groups they have had in years.  Only one projected starter returns in the DB’s.  Even though the Buckeye’s tend to reload, I cannot see how this group lives up to previous standards, regardless of suspensions.

Special Teams

Ohio State lose their starting kicker but return their punter.  Both KR and PR also return.  Though Tressel is gone, it will be important for OSU to maintain good special teams in order to squeak out some close victories a la Tressel-ball. 

Schedule and Intangibles

The Buckeyes get a brutal schedule with road trips to Nebraska, Illinois, and the Big House.  In addition, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Penn State visit Columbus.  I think that all 6 of these schools are better than Ohio State this year, and would be shocked if Ohio State even split these games 3-3.  Add a trip to Miami (though weakened by suspension themselves) and a winning season I think proves difficult. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 7 – 5 (4-4)

I think that the suspensions and loss of Pryor/Tressell will hurt, even though the Buckeyes tend to reload each year.  Before Pryor was dismissed from the team, I felt that the suspensions were going to cost the Buckeyes 3 games.  When Pryor and Tressel were sent packing, I just cannot see the Buckeyes being a dominant force in 2011.  The Buckeye conference title streak comes to a bitter end.

Akron – W

Toledo – W

@ Miami (FL) – L

Colorado – W

Michigan State  - L

@ Nebraska – L

@ Illinois  – W

Bye Week

Wisconsin – L

Indiana – W

@ Purdue - W

Penn State – L

@ Michigan - W

4.) Purdue Boilermakers

Offense

Purdue’s offense never was healthy last year, with 3 ACL injuries to starters.  Injury again appears to have affected the Boiler’s QB, and apparently TerBush is getting the nod as the starter.  RB Bolden returns from injury, but no other real experience returns at RB.  Similarly, Purdue lacks skill and depth at the wideout.  Though the Boiler’s have an above average OL returning, Purdue’s offense is somewhat anemic, especially given the caliber of the Big Ten defenses they’ll face. 

Defense

The Boilermaker defense is projected to return 9 starters, however considering that the Boilermaker defense was one of the worst in the Big Ten, which may not be the best thing.  The loss of DE Kerrigan will hurt as he accounted for nearly one half of the team’s sacks.  I see them taking a step back in the pass rush, which seeps into the other facets of the defense.  I expect the back seven to have a solid year, but will suffer from the lack of a pass rush. 

Special Teams

Purdue returns their punter, kicker, and one returner.  That should help them put some points on the board and play a decent field position game.  

Schedule and Intangibles

The Boilermaker’s schedule blesses them with both Minnesota and Indiana on the schedule.  The second half of the schedule is brutal, getting the toughest competition the Big Ten can throw at it minus Sparty and the Cornhuskers.  A worthless bye week in week 4 doesn’t help them at all. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 5 – 7 (2-6)

The Boilermakers still cannot match the talent that the conference’s big boys bring.  I also think Danny Hope is not what Boiler nation was hoping for.  I think this is Hope’s last year, as the Boiler’s miss the post-season for the 5 straight year. 

Middle Tennessee – W

@ Rice – W

SE Missouri St. – W

Bye Week

Notre Dame – L

Minnesota – W

@ Penn State – L

Illinois  – L

@ Michigan -  L

@ Wisconsin – L

Ohio State – L

Iowa – L

@ Indiana – W

5.)  Indiana Hoosiers

Offense

The loss of Ben Chappell at QB hurts the Hoosiers big time.  The loss of wideouts Doss and Turner will reduce IU’s offensive firepower even more.  The offensive line looks solid but unspectacular, but should open holes for RB Darius Willis.  I see a big drop off in IU’s offensive production this year. 

Defense

The Hoosier defense is prepared to take a major step forward this season.  Five of the front seven return, and though IU’s defense was lacking last season, I think they’ll be able to hold their own against all but the most premiere of Big Ten offenses.  The biggest hole IU faces are in the DB’s which are bound to be somewhat improved, solely due to atrocious play in 2010.

Special Teams

IU’s special teams are somewhere between a weakness and a strength.  In other words, don’t expect  IU to win or lose many games based on special teams.  The loss of Doss as punt returner is going to be a major step back.

Schedule and Intangibles

The Hoosier’s schedule is brutal as only one of their Big Ten opponents was not bowl bound.  IU has the Badgers, the Hawkeyes, the Buckeyes, and the Spartans on the road.  New coach Kevin Wilson appears to be a good choice, but expect a season or two of adjustment prior to any real progress.

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 3 – 9 (0-8)

The Hoosiers were 5 – 7 last season, but only beat one Big Ten team (Purdue in OT).  With a tough schedule, new coach, and loss of Chappell and Doss, I cannot see this team improving. 

Ball State – W

Virginia – L

South Carolina St. – W

@ North Texas – W

Penn State – L

Illinois – L

@ Wisconsin – L

@ Iowa -  L

Northwestern – L

@ Ohio State – L

Bye Week

@ Michigan State – L

Purdue - L

2011 Legends Division Predictions

Legends Division Predictions 

Division Champion: Michigan State Spartans

1.)  Michigan State Spartans

Offense

Sparty bodes one of the best offenses in the conference.  Kirk Cousins is a solid QB that will be a real difference maker in the Big Ten.  Michigan State has probably the best all-around stable of running backs in the conference in Baker, Caper, and Bell.  Complementing the backs are a great set of wideouts, especially seniors Cunningham and Martin.  The OL has more depth, but less experience and is the lone negative on the offensive side of the football.

Defense

The Spartans DL is a veteran unit and will be one of the best in the league.  The back 7 takes a pretty big hit, losing LB’s Jones, Gordan and SS Hyde who were the top 3 tacklers on the team.  I think the production up front will ultimately help Michigan State’s weaker back 7. 

Special Teams

K Conroy is the best statistically in the Big Ten, so the Spartans will be able to cap most drives with points.  They are breaking in a new P, but returner Martin gives the Spartans a solid special teams unit.

Schedule and Intangibles

MSU are the only Big Ten team to catch the Buckeyes with their suspensions.  There schedule overall is favorable, getting Wisconsin and Michigan at home while having to go to Nebraska and Iowa.  I cannot see many teams snuffing out this offensive attack. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 11-1 (7-1)

Michigan State builds off a good season last year and wins the Legends Division.  Wisconsin is a unconventional “trap game” as Sparty is thrusted into national prominence.  Otherwise, the Spartans go unscathed and head to Indy for the Inaugural Big Ten Championship. 

Youngstown State – W

Florida Atlantic – W

@ Notre Dame – W

Central Michigan – W

@ Ohio State – W

Bye Week

Michigan – W

Wisconsin – L

@Nebraska – W

Minnesota – W

@ Iowa – W

Indiana – W

Northwestern – W

2.)  Nebraska Cornhuskers

Offense

I am largely unimpressed with the Cornhusker Offense.  While I believe defense wins championships, you need at least some offensive production.  While QB Martinez shows flashes of greatness, he is too inconsistent and too injury-prone to be a significant threat to the top Big Ten defenses.  RB Burkhead showed production last year, but the Big Twelve’s defensive linemen do not compare to those in the Big Ten.  Lackluster receivers and an inexperienced OL round out an average Cornhusker offense.

Defense

Have you heard of Jared Crick?  If not you will.  Crick is a dominant force on the DL and will draw numerous double teams this season.  Most Big Ten offenses will have little remedy for Crick.  The rest of the DL is solid and experienced.  LaVonte David is a star LB that makes the Cornhusker front 7 a menacing bunch.  The DB’s also are a good group.  The Cornhuskers likely have one of the best defenses in the Big Ten, but need to adjust fast to the new Big Ten schemes they will see. 

Special Teams

Nebraska has one of the least experienced special teams units in the conference.  That doesn’t fair well when you have sub-par offensive production.  Special teams will cost Nebraska at least one game.

Schedule and Intangibles

Nebraska got the shaft in regard to their inaugural season in the Big Ten.  The Cornhuskers play the top echelon of the Big Ten, getting crossover games against PSU, Wisconsin, and the Buckeyes. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 9 – 3 (5-3)

Most writers have picked Nebraska to win the Legends Division.  I do not agree.  I feel that the transition to Big Ten play will not be entirely smooth, as nearly all game film is new. I also do not see Nebraska beating the most balanced offensive and defensive teams in the Big Ten as the Cornhusker Offense has not been exposed to the stout defenses of the Big Ten.

Chattanooga – W

Fresno  State – W

Washington – W

@ Wyoming – W

@ Wisconsin – L

Ohio State – W

Bye Week

@ Minnesota – W

Michigan State – L

Northwestern – W

@ Penn State – L

@ Michigan – W

Iowa – W

3.)  Michigan Wolverines

Offense

Denard Robinson is the best player in the Big Ten.  Period.  Given my own personal hatred of Michigan, that is saying a lot.  He has an afterburner and just does not give second-level defenders a chance to make clean tackles.  His passing is not his strength, but it is threatening enough and it is improving.  Michigan has its best set of wideouts in a long time.  While they don’t have their typical feature tailback, they have a good stable of backs that will be able to have some success.  Michigan’s OL is above average.

Defense

Anything Michigan does on defense will be an improvement.  I think that on all fronts, DL, LB’s and DB’s, Michigan is above average at best with little star power outside of Martin and Woolfork.  Michigan’s season rides solely on the play of the defense. 

Special Teams

Prior to the 2010 season, Michigan had open tryouts for K and struggled going a combined 4-14 in field goals (with none longer than 39 yards).  That weakness put too much pressure on Michigan’s offense. 

Schedule and Intangibles

Michigan’s schedule ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of toughness.  The bye week comes about at mid-season, which I always think is a plus.  Though Michigan draws only 4 away games, they are fairly difficult.

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 7 – 5 (5-3)

Everyone’s heard the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  New coach Brady Hoke is stepping in determined to change Michigan’s spread offense implemented by RichRod to a more pro-style offense.  I think this is a huge mistake.  Denard needs to be put in the position to make plays.  The spread is perfect for him and after some early struggles with the pro-style offense in the early part of the season, I see the spread being re-introduced back into the offense…  if they are smart anyway.  Even though I rank them 5^th in the Legends Division, Michigan is my Dark Horse contender.

Western Michigan – W

Notre Dame – L

Eastern  Michigan – W

San Diego State – W

Minnesota – W

@ Northwestern – L

@ Michigan State – L

Bye Week

Purdue – W

@ Iowa - W

@ Illinois – L

Nebraska – L

Ohio State - L

T4.) Iowa Hawkeyes

Offense

James Vandenberg now replaces Ricky Stanzi at QB.  Though Vandenberg was known for having some success against Ohio State back when Stanzi got injured a while back, Vandenberg is no Stanzi.  Iowa’s offensive line returns 4 starters, which is always a good thing.  McNutt at wideout and Coker at tailback definitely give the Hawkeyes some weapons, but after these two, I am not impressed with Iowa’s skill positions.  As the year progresses, I expect the offense to become more formidable, but growing pains will slow the Hawkeyes offensively at the season’s start.  

Defense

No unit in the Big Ten was hit harder by graduation and the draft than Iowa’s defense.  Only 4 starters return.  The loss of Clayborn, Ballard, Klug on DL will hamper Iowa’s pass rush.  Iowa’s best LB Hunter also does not return.  The DB’s are a veteran unit, but their strength will not be able to make up for the weaker front 7.

Special Teams

While Iowa’s K Mike Meyer while certainly help to put some points on the board, a new punter and the loss of Johnson-Koulianos as returner will not help the Hawkeyes win the field position game. 

Schedule and Intangibles

The Hawkeyes catch a big break only getting Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State in their crossover games in conference.  They also get Michigan and Michigan State at home.  Two tough road games in Happy Valley and Lincoln will certainly test this crew.  Iowa’s bye week falls right before conference play, which I see as a huge disadvantage down the stretch. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 8 – 4 (4-4)

The Hawkeyes ended the regular season on a bad spell, dropping the last three games although they beat Missouri in the bowl.  I expect to see the Hawkeyes struggle, especially with 8 straight conference games to end the season.  A generally favorable schedule makes them look better then they truly are, but I expect a return to form in 2012. 

Tennessee Tech – W

@ Iowa State – W

Pittsburgh – W

ULM – W

Bye Week

Penn State – W

Northwestern – L

Indiana – W

@ Minnesota – W

Michigan – L

Michigan State – L

@ Purdue – W

@ Nebraska – L

T4.)  Northwestern Wildcats

Offense

QB Dan Persa is a threat to do some serious damage, but as we saw last year, a Persa-less Wildcat team really struggled.  If Persa can stay healthy and is fully recovered, I expect the Wildcats to continue to be the hardest team to beat week-to-week.  RB Trumpy showed promise but is not as critical to the run game as Persa.  An experienced receiver corps returns and should give some targets for Persa.  4 out of 5 offensive lineman return.  This is one the most veteran offense in the Big Ten.

Defense

Northwestern has a decent defense but it certain lacks where I think it counts.  One player (DE Browne) accounted for nearly two-thirds of the returning QB sacks.  NW also gave up over 5 yards per carry last year which was near the bottom of the Big Ten.  If NW can get some QB pressure from others and can stiffen up against the run, they’ll have a far greater chance of winning games.

Special Teams

A fairly vanilla special teams unit for Northwestern certainly won’t help them win close ball games and win the field position battle. 

Schedule and Intangibles

Northwestern faces a fairly tough slate, including a few non-conference foes that could give them trouble.  An early bye week hurts the Wildcats down the stretch. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 7 – 5 (4-4)

Coach Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the Big Ten and nobody does better with less talent than Northwestern.  I always expect them to compete in nearly every game.  The Wildcats always go down swinging!

@ Boston College – W

Eastern Illinois – W

@ Army – L

Bye Week

@ Illinois – L

Michigan – W

@ Iowa – W

Penn State – L

@ Indiana – W

@ Nebraska – L

Rice – W

Minnesota – W

Michigan State - L

 

6.)  Minnesota

Offense

QB Gray is going to cause defensive coordinators fits as he is one of the most athletically gifted players in the Big Ten.  Minnesota has a great set of skill position players, but wideout McKnight is the best of the bunch.  Only 2 lineman return, which will certainly limit the effectiveness of the skill players.

Defense

Minnesota only sacked the QB 9 times last season.  They also gave up 5.3 yards per carry.  While 8 starters are pegged to return, I assume this group will improve.  Considering the offensive firepower in the Legends Division (Northwestern,  Michigan State, and Michigan), the Golden Gopher defense will have its work cut out. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 2-10 (0-8)

Minnesota is facing an identity crisis that won’t rectify itself until Coach Kill gets a few of his own recruiting classes in the system. 

@USC – L

New Mexico St – W

Miami (OH) – L

North Dakota St – W

@ Michigan – L

@ Purdue – L

Bye Week

Nebraska – L

Iowa – L

@ Michigan State – L

Wisconsin – L

@ Northwestern – L

Illinois - L