Week #5: Predictions

Record to date: 38-8 (82.6 %)
Record last week: 9-1 (90.0%)

Week#5 Predictions

Conference play begins and what a opening slate of games!

Penn State @ Indiana (Penn State)
Penn State lost two of their best three defensive players last week against Eastern Michigan, Michael Mauti and D'Anton Lynn.  Mauti is out for the year which is a shame because I predicted that Mauti would be the Big Ten DPOY and did feel he was on track for such a breakout year.  Lynn likely will be out for a few weeks. 

Even without Mauti, I think PSU has an exceptional defense and can overcome the injuries for now.  Both PSU and Indiana lack offensive identities right now, but PSU has more offensive playmakers.  On defense, PSU clearly outmatches the Hoosiers.  And on the special teams side of the equation, the Lions may have found their kicker in Fera.  Indiana's wideouts may be somewhat problematic for the Lions to contain, especially with Lynn's injury.  However, this is the lone advantage I see for the Hoosiers in all of the matchups. 

At a neutral site last season, a less talented Penn State team ended up getting the win.  This 2011 version of Penn State is vastly improved, and I see them playing a very solid game.  Penn State takes a much needed step in the right direction with a big win. 



Minnesota @ Michigan (Michigan)
While I do not think the Golden Gophers are going to sit back and just get licked, I think Michigan is playing football better by about every aspect.  Michigan's defense has played better, but they have not seen an elite offensive attack yet.  The Gophers certainly are not among the offensive elite and their current QB quandary is problematic.  I think the biggest discrepancy between the teams is Michigan's offense versus Minnesota's defense.  Denard got off to a smoking start last week and I expect him to have a good game this week and Minnesota just does not have athletic enough defenders to contain him. 



Michigan State @ Ohio State (Michigan State)
This game is a true litmus test for both teams.  I think the winner of this game is going to have a decent season, but the loser of this game may be set to underachieve.  While I think Ohio State has better talent, I like Michigan State's experience, especially behind center.  Both teams had Week 3 matchups to forget, but also had good bounce backs last week.  This one could go either way, but MSU's experience and my gut feeling at the beginning of the season tell me to go with Sparty. 



Northwestern @ Illinois (Illinois)
If this was not Persa's first game back, I'd probably pick the Wildcats, however I think he will not be at 100 percent effectiveness this week.  Northwestern is simply not ready to fulfill its offensive potential yet.  Defensively, Northwestern is really lacking too.  Illinois is a much more complete team, even though they had a scare last week.  Being at home helps the Chief as well.  I do believe that the Illini are a touch over-rated, but they still should outmatch the Wildcats. 



Notre Dame @ Purdue (Notre Dame)

Though there victory against Pitt may seem to indicate otherwise, ND is rolling.  Even though Purdue had an off-week, the Irish are starting to put things together  Time can sometimes beat talent, but Danny Hope is no Urban Meyer.  Boiler down. 


Nebraska @ Wisconsin (Nebraska)
My wife and in-laws will hate me, but I think the Badgers have yet to be tested.  To quote another blogger, "Nebraska has played no one, but Wisconsin has played NOBODY."  I think that at least the Huskers had to play 4 quarters of football against Fresno State and Washington.  Wisconsin has not had to play more than a half of real football this season.  I think that 4th quarter endurance and mindset will hamper the Badgers.

Offensively, both teams are impressive, but Bucky is more balanced.  Defensively is where I think the Cornhuskers will separate themselves.  I think Camp Randall is more winnable than the media is making it out to be.  I like Nebraska and their defense in this one. 


Idle
Iowa

U - Upset Alert (Game of the week that most likely could result in an upset)

Week #4

Week #4 Review

Week #4 was pretty straightforward. I hate Minnesota. Unlike my Big Ten Blogger brethren, I predicted Indiana's loss. The other games were generally one-sided. I am glad the Illini squeaked out a win.

What changes now? Conference games are now worth 2 points. That means it is time to separate the men from the boys!

Justin Brennan
Week #4: 9-1 (90.0%)
Year (to date): 38-8 (82.6%)
Week #4 Points: 9
Points to date: 38


ESPN Big Ten Bloggers

Brian Bennett
Week #4: 8-2 (80.0%)
Year (to date): 36-10 (78.3%)
Week #4 Points: 8
Points to date: 36


Adam Rittenberg
Week #4: 8-2 (80.0%)
Year (to date): 33-13 (71.7%)
Week #4 Points: 8
Points to date: 33

Week #4: Predictions

Record to date: 29-7 (80.6 %)
Record last week: 8-4 (67.7%)

Week#4 Predictions
My straight up picks for Week #4.  This is the last week of pure non-conference action, so I am hoping for a sweep to get me into conference matchups.  No pairing of ranked opponents this week.  In fact, most of these games are pretty one-sided.  On to the picks!!!

Winners

Central Michigan at Michigan State (Michigan State)
The biggest shocker of last week was the lack of a running attack from Sparty against the Irish.  I cannot imagine Sparty having similar issues this week.  Michigan State will bounce back and go to 3-1.

San Diego State at Michigan (Michigan)
Brady Hoke knows his former team better than his current team.  That has to be a huge advantage for Michigan.  I also like the statistical matchups in Michigan's favor.  Michigan also has the best player in college football (in my opinion).  Close, but I hand the W to the Wolverines. 

Eastern Michigan at Penn State (Penn State)
Penn State's defense played lights out against Temple last week, practically winning the game for the Nits.  Penn State's offense did little to help them beat Temple.  Penn State's special teams did everything in their power to lose the game.  Luckily, Eastern Michigan continues its Big Ten Butt Kick Tour.  I expect the Lions to win big and to address a lot of their issues. 

Louisiana-Monroe at Iowa (Iowa)
Arrgh, I want to call the upset in this one, but home field advantage convinces me otherwise.  Iowa like many Big Ten teams have a lot of problems to address, but I always like when I team has to fight back to win.  It builds character and helps the leaders rise to the surface.  Iowa wins but it is close.

Colorado at Ohio State (Ohio State)
Ohio State is a mess right now.  They gave up more running yards in a game than I have ever seen.  Colorado is a bigger mess however, struggling in their opening 3 games.  Ohio State wins. 

South Dakota at Wisconsin (Wisconsin)
Squish...  That was the sound of Wisconsin steamrolling yet another cupcake. 

Western Michigan at Illinois (Illinois)
Good win last week for the Illini.  Michigan took care of business (albeit in a shortened game) against WMU.  I think that the Illini have a better overall team than Michigan right now and that they continue to roll.  I expect the Illini to stumble here soon, but just not this week. 

North Dakota State at Minnesota (Minnesota)
As bad as I have been predicting Minnesota this year, I should just flipped a coin.  The home field helps the Gophers as does offensive threat Gray at QB.  While NDS is one of the best FCS teams around, I think they are not slipping under Jerry Kill's radar. 

Nebraska at Wyoming (Nebraska)
Nebraska is improving, but with the Badgers rolling into town next week this has the makings of a classic trap game.  The Cornhuskers struggle, but win simply due to far better talent. 

Losers

Indiana at North Texas
Neither team is impressive.  I think Indiana has much better talent, but they were too heavily penalized last week to make me think they are anywhere near playing good football.  I'll go with the home team in a tight one.


Idle
Northwestern
Purdue

U - Upset Alert (Game of the week that most likely could result in an upset)

Week #3 Review

Week #3 Review

Week #3 was a toughie and while I cannot say I was pleased going 8-4, I certainly could have faired much worse.  I did correctly call my second upset (Army over Northwestern).  Sadly, I am kicking myself for not going with my gut for Michigan State and Ohio State.  In any case, I hung in there with ESPN's Big Ten Bloggers.  I am starting to be pull away from Adam Rittenberg, but Brian Bennett is closing on me. 

On to the last week of full non-conference action!

Justin Brennan
Week #3: 8-4 (67.7%)
Year (to date): 29-7 (80.6%)
Week #3 Points: 8
Points to date: 29


ESPN Big Ten Bloggers

Brian Bennett
Week #3: 9-3 (75.0%)
Year (to date): 28-8 (77.8%)
Week #3 Points: 9
Points to date: 28


Adam Rittenberg
Week #3: 8-4 (66.7%)
Year (to date): 25-11 (69.4%)
Week #3 Points: 8
Points to date: 25

Week #3 Predictions

Record to date: 21-3 (87.5 %)
Record last week: 10-2 (83.3%)

Week#3 Predictions
My straight up picks for Week #3.  In my opinion, this week is the hardest of the non-conference slate.  I'll be happy if I go 9-3 this week.  I could do as bad as 6-6. 

Winners
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan (Michigan)
Michigan is rolling.  If Eastern Michigan assistant and former Wolverine Mike Hart thought Michigan State was Michigan's little brother, than Eastern Michigan is the baby brother.  Denard smokes Eastern Michigan. 

Penn State @ Temple (Penn State)
Everyone thinks the sky is falling in Happy Valley after the loss to 'Bama, but then again, no one picked the Lions anyway!  Puzzling...  Anyway, I think PSU wins the ol' fashoned Paterno way: solid defense and a productive running attack.  I think the 'Bama loss did have a a positive effect on Penn State in that Rob Bolden has begun to separate himself at QB.  Temple is a good team, but PSU bounces back.

Pittsburgh at Iowa (Iowa)

I like the Hawkeyes in this one.  They had a tough road game last week in Ames, but I think Ferentz rights the ship.  Home game and better running attack leads Iowa to victory.

Southeast Missouri State @ Purdue (Purdue)

In the first 2 weeks, Purdue has matched up against equal competition and split the two games.  This week, the Boilermakers are the superior product on the field and win big.

South Carolina State @ Indiana (Indiana)

Finally, the Hoosiers match up well against an opponent.  Savor the victory Indiana... there aren't many more chances on that schedule. 

Michigan State @ Notre Dame (Michigan State)

Tough pick.  On one hand, I cannot see ND losing 3 straight, especially with a home game.  On the other hand, Michigan State improved greatly from week 1 to week 2, especially defensively holding Florida Atlantic to ONE first down.  In tight games I look closest at venue, running game, and defense.  MSU has ND on two of those three and Sparty wins a tight one. 

Washington @ Nebraska (Nebraska)

I knew Fresno would play Nebraska hard.  I think that Nebraska benefits from the competition they got last week and straightens themselves out.  Nebraska wins big.

Wisconsin vs Northern Illinois in Chicago (Wisconsin)
Wisconsin has gotten off to an outstanding start, but I expect them to hit a small roadblock in Chicago.  Against a tougher foe, the Badgers could be in trouble, but this NIU team is not good enough to knock the Badgers off.  Bucky wins, but not a blowout. 

Ohio State @ Miami, FL (Ohio State)

 Toughest pick so far this season.  Prior to the season, I liked the Hurricanes to knock off the Buckeyes.  However, the close game last week may help wake the Buckeyes up out of their funk.  They also get a few players back which will help.  Harris returns for the Hurricanes at QB.  Harris is talented, but is inconsistent and is going to have to shake off some rust.  The Buckeyes eek out a victory. 

Losers
Miami, OH @ Minnesota (Miami, OH)
Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice shame on me.  Prior to the season, I thought Minnesota would be terrible, and in Week #1 they nearly knock off the Trojans on the road.  Then I drank Gopher Kool Aide and they get owned by New Mexico State at home.  Therefore, I return to my previous opinion that the Gophers are a lousy football team. 

Arizona State  @ Illinois (Arizona State)
Another toughie.  Illinois played great last week.  Arizona State also played great, but against a superior opponent.  I think Arizona State narrowly beats the Illini on the road. 

Northwestern @ Army (Army) U
I think that the Wildcats have overachieved without Dan Persa.  This week, Persa is questionable.  Even with Persa starting, he will not be 100 percent.  I just think the Wildcats' luck will run out. 

U - Upset Alert (Game of the week that most likely could result in an upset)

Week #2 Review

Week #2 Review

Well after 2 weeks I am still in the lead. I got my Iowa State over Iowa upset correct. I was 50-50 on Purdue vs Rice so no shame in that pick considering how close that game was. I drank the Golden Gopher Kool Aide last week. Shame on me. On to Week #3!

Week #2: 10-2 (83.3%)
Year (to date): 21-3 (87.5%)
Week #2 Points: 10
Points to date: 21

ESPN Big Ten Bloggers

Brian Bennett
Week #2: 9-3 (75.0%)
Year (to date): 19-5 (79.2%)
Week #2 Points: 9
Points to date: 19

Adam Rittenberg
Week #2: 8-4 (66.7%)
Year (to date): 17-7 (70.8%)
Week #2 Points: 8
Points to date: 17

Week #2 Predictions

Record to date: 11-1 (91.7 %)
Record last week: 11-1 (91.7%)

Week#2 Predictions
My straight up picks for Week #2.  I hope to match last week's success, but there are a couple of really tight matchups, with only one week of trends to observe. 

Winners
Notre Dame @ Michigan (Michigan)
Notre Dame is played too sloppy in their game against South Florida for me to think they will pull it out.  And you cannot blame weather delays either for the Irish, as Michigan dealt with the same storms and delays.  I like Michigan, but I expect a close one.

Oregon State @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin)
I'll make this simple.  Oregon State lost to an FCS team last week.  Wisconsin pummeled UNLV.  Badgers roll to 2-0.

Toledo @ Ohio State (Ohio State)
The Buckeye's get some players back.  While I like Toledo's team, they cannot match the Buckeyes.  Ohio State wins big.

Fresno State @ Nebraska (Nebraska)
Fresno always plays tough, but Nebraska's defense won't let the Bulldogs come away with an upset.  Nebraska wins comfortably, but not by blowout margins.

Florida Atlantic @ Michigan State (Michigan State)
Michigan State did not play up to their potential last week.  I think Florida Atlantic is in for a long day.

New Mexico State @ Minnesota (Minnesota)
I like the fight from the Golden Gophers last week.  I think with Gray back at QB, they'll probably have a better year than I anticipated.  We will see however.  Gophers come away with Jerry Kill's first victory.

Eastern Illinois @ Northwestern (Northwestern)
If the Wildcats can get away with a W on the road at Boston College without Dan Persa, there is no way they won't have similar success against a much weaker EIU team. 

South Dakota State @ Illinois (Illinois)
Illinois did not play as well as I thought they would have last week, but luckily South Dakota State will not test them too much, providing the Illlini time to iron things out.

Purdue @ Rice (Purdue)
This was a tough one for me.  Though it is on the road and Purdue is certainly not playing great football, I like their resolve against MTSU last week, who is an opponent of greater strength than Rice.  Purdue squeks one out... again.

Losers
Alabama @ Penn State (Alabama)
As I type this, I am en route to State College, so it is hard not to pick the Lions.  While Penn State is an improved team, their unsettled QB situation is not conducive to knock off the #2 team in the nation.  Unlike last years 24-3 defeat, the Lions make Alabama sweat.  Final score Alabama 20 - Penn State 17.

Virginia @ Indiana (Virginia)
I don't know how Indiana lost to Ball State.  I think that does not bode well for the Hoosiers this week against a much better team on the road. 

Iowa @ Iowa State (Iowa State) U
My first upset pick of the year.  While I think that Hawkeyes are better than the Cyclones, I don't think they are good enough to overcome the road disadvantage. 

U - Upset Alert (Game of the week that most likely could result in an upset)

Week 1 Review

Well I started strong, going 11-0 until the Hoosiers put the first blemish on the record. Oh well, 11-1 is not too shabby.

Week #1: 11-1 (91.7%)
Year (to date): 11-1 (91.7%)
Points: 11

ESPN Big Ten Bloggers

Brian Bennett
Week #1: 11-1 (91.7%)
Year (to date): 11-1 (91.7%)
Points: 11

Adam Rittenberg
Week #1: 9-3 (75%)
Year (to date): 9-3 (75%)

Points: 9