2011 Legends Division Predictions

Legends Division Predictions 

Division Champion: Michigan State Spartans

1.)  Michigan State Spartans

Offense

Sparty bodes one of the best offenses in the conference.  Kirk Cousins is a solid QB that will be a real difference maker in the Big Ten.  Michigan State has probably the best all-around stable of running backs in the conference in Baker, Caper, and Bell.  Complementing the backs are a great set of wideouts, especially seniors Cunningham and Martin.  The OL has more depth, but less experience and is the lone negative on the offensive side of the football.

Defense

The Spartans DL is a veteran unit and will be one of the best in the league.  The back 7 takes a pretty big hit, losing LB’s Jones, Gordan and SS Hyde who were the top 3 tacklers on the team.  I think the production up front will ultimately help Michigan State’s weaker back 7. 

Special Teams

K Conroy is the best statistically in the Big Ten, so the Spartans will be able to cap most drives with points.  They are breaking in a new P, but returner Martin gives the Spartans a solid special teams unit.

Schedule and Intangibles

MSU are the only Big Ten team to catch the Buckeyes with their suspensions.  There schedule overall is favorable, getting Wisconsin and Michigan at home while having to go to Nebraska and Iowa.  I cannot see many teams snuffing out this offensive attack. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 11-1 (7-1)

Michigan State builds off a good season last year and wins the Legends Division.  Wisconsin is a unconventional “trap game” as Sparty is thrusted into national prominence.  Otherwise, the Spartans go unscathed and head to Indy for the Inaugural Big Ten Championship. 

Youngstown State – W

Florida Atlantic – W

@ Notre Dame – W

Central Michigan – W

@ Ohio State – W

Bye Week

Michigan – W

Wisconsin – L

@Nebraska – W

Minnesota – W

@ Iowa – W

Indiana – W

Northwestern – W

2.)  Nebraska Cornhuskers

Offense

I am largely unimpressed with the Cornhusker Offense.  While I believe defense wins championships, you need at least some offensive production.  While QB Martinez shows flashes of greatness, he is too inconsistent and too injury-prone to be a significant threat to the top Big Ten defenses.  RB Burkhead showed production last year, but the Big Twelve’s defensive linemen do not compare to those in the Big Ten.  Lackluster receivers and an inexperienced OL round out an average Cornhusker offense.

Defense

Have you heard of Jared Crick?  If not you will.  Crick is a dominant force on the DL and will draw numerous double teams this season.  Most Big Ten offenses will have little remedy for Crick.  The rest of the DL is solid and experienced.  LaVonte David is a star LB that makes the Cornhusker front 7 a menacing bunch.  The DB’s also are a good group.  The Cornhuskers likely have one of the best defenses in the Big Ten, but need to adjust fast to the new Big Ten schemes they will see. 

Special Teams

Nebraska has one of the least experienced special teams units in the conference.  That doesn’t fair well when you have sub-par offensive production.  Special teams will cost Nebraska at least one game.

Schedule and Intangibles

Nebraska got the shaft in regard to their inaugural season in the Big Ten.  The Cornhuskers play the top echelon of the Big Ten, getting crossover games against PSU, Wisconsin, and the Buckeyes. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 9 – 3 (5-3)

Most writers have picked Nebraska to win the Legends Division.  I do not agree.  I feel that the transition to Big Ten play will not be entirely smooth, as nearly all game film is new. I also do not see Nebraska beating the most balanced offensive and defensive teams in the Big Ten as the Cornhusker Offense has not been exposed to the stout defenses of the Big Ten.

Chattanooga – W

Fresno  State – W

Washington – W

@ Wyoming – W

@ Wisconsin – L

Ohio State – W

Bye Week

@ Minnesota – W

Michigan State – L

Northwestern – W

@ Penn State – L

@ Michigan – W

Iowa – W

3.)  Michigan Wolverines

Offense

Denard Robinson is the best player in the Big Ten.  Period.  Given my own personal hatred of Michigan, that is saying a lot.  He has an afterburner and just does not give second-level defenders a chance to make clean tackles.  His passing is not his strength, but it is threatening enough and it is improving.  Michigan has its best set of wideouts in a long time.  While they don’t have their typical feature tailback, they have a good stable of backs that will be able to have some success.  Michigan’s OL is above average.

Defense

Anything Michigan does on defense will be an improvement.  I think that on all fronts, DL, LB’s and DB’s, Michigan is above average at best with little star power outside of Martin and Woolfork.  Michigan’s season rides solely on the play of the defense. 

Special Teams

Prior to the 2010 season, Michigan had open tryouts for K and struggled going a combined 4-14 in field goals (with none longer than 39 yards).  That weakness put too much pressure on Michigan’s offense. 

Schedule and Intangibles

Michigan’s schedule ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of toughness.  The bye week comes about at mid-season, which I always think is a plus.  Though Michigan draws only 4 away games, they are fairly difficult.

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 7 – 5 (5-3)

Everyone’s heard the saying “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  New coach Brady Hoke is stepping in determined to change Michigan’s spread offense implemented by RichRod to a more pro-style offense.  I think this is a huge mistake.  Denard needs to be put in the position to make plays.  The spread is perfect for him and after some early struggles with the pro-style offense in the early part of the season, I see the spread being re-introduced back into the offense…  if they are smart anyway.  Even though I rank them 5^th in the Legends Division, Michigan is my Dark Horse contender.

Western Michigan – W

Notre Dame – L

Eastern  Michigan – W

San Diego State – W

Minnesota – W

@ Northwestern – L

@ Michigan State – L

Bye Week

Purdue – W

@ Iowa - W

@ Illinois – L

Nebraska – L

Ohio State - L

T4.) Iowa Hawkeyes

Offense

James Vandenberg now replaces Ricky Stanzi at QB.  Though Vandenberg was known for having some success against Ohio State back when Stanzi got injured a while back, Vandenberg is no Stanzi.  Iowa’s offensive line returns 4 starters, which is always a good thing.  McNutt at wideout and Coker at tailback definitely give the Hawkeyes some weapons, but after these two, I am not impressed with Iowa’s skill positions.  As the year progresses, I expect the offense to become more formidable, but growing pains will slow the Hawkeyes offensively at the season’s start.  

Defense

No unit in the Big Ten was hit harder by graduation and the draft than Iowa’s defense.  Only 4 starters return.  The loss of Clayborn, Ballard, Klug on DL will hamper Iowa’s pass rush.  Iowa’s best LB Hunter also does not return.  The DB’s are a veteran unit, but their strength will not be able to make up for the weaker front 7.

Special Teams

While Iowa’s K Mike Meyer while certainly help to put some points on the board, a new punter and the loss of Johnson-Koulianos as returner will not help the Hawkeyes win the field position game. 

Schedule and Intangibles

The Hawkeyes catch a big break only getting Indiana, Purdue, and Penn State in their crossover games in conference.  They also get Michigan and Michigan State at home.  Two tough road games in Happy Valley and Lincoln will certainly test this crew.  Iowa’s bye week falls right before conference play, which I see as a huge disadvantage down the stretch. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 8 – 4 (4-4)

The Hawkeyes ended the regular season on a bad spell, dropping the last three games although they beat Missouri in the bowl.  I expect to see the Hawkeyes struggle, especially with 8 straight conference games to end the season.  A generally favorable schedule makes them look better then they truly are, but I expect a return to form in 2012. 

Tennessee Tech – W

@ Iowa State – W

Pittsburgh – W

ULM – W

Bye Week

Penn State – W

Northwestern – L

Indiana – W

@ Minnesota – W

Michigan – L

Michigan State – L

@ Purdue – W

@ Nebraska – L

T4.)  Northwestern Wildcats

Offense

QB Dan Persa is a threat to do some serious damage, but as we saw last year, a Persa-less Wildcat team really struggled.  If Persa can stay healthy and is fully recovered, I expect the Wildcats to continue to be the hardest team to beat week-to-week.  RB Trumpy showed promise but is not as critical to the run game as Persa.  An experienced receiver corps returns and should give some targets for Persa.  4 out of 5 offensive lineman return.  This is one the most veteran offense in the Big Ten.

Defense

Northwestern has a decent defense but it certain lacks where I think it counts.  One player (DE Browne) accounted for nearly two-thirds of the returning QB sacks.  NW also gave up over 5 yards per carry last year which was near the bottom of the Big Ten.  If NW can get some QB pressure from others and can stiffen up against the run, they’ll have a far greater chance of winning games.

Special Teams

A fairly vanilla special teams unit for Northwestern certainly won’t help them win close ball games and win the field position battle. 

Schedule and Intangibles

Northwestern faces a fairly tough slate, including a few non-conference foes that could give them trouble.  An early bye week hurts the Wildcats down the stretch. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 7 – 5 (4-4)

Coach Fitzgerald is one of the best coaches in the Big Ten and nobody does better with less talent than Northwestern.  I always expect them to compete in nearly every game.  The Wildcats always go down swinging!

@ Boston College – W

Eastern Illinois – W

@ Army – L

Bye Week

@ Illinois – L

Michigan – W

@ Iowa – W

Penn State – L

@ Indiana – W

@ Nebraska – L

Rice – W

Minnesota – W

Michigan State - L

 

6.)  Minnesota

Offense

QB Gray is going to cause defensive coordinators fits as he is one of the most athletically gifted players in the Big Ten.  Minnesota has a great set of skill position players, but wideout McKnight is the best of the bunch.  Only 2 lineman return, which will certainly limit the effectiveness of the skill players.

Defense

Minnesota only sacked the QB 9 times last season.  They also gave up 5.3 yards per carry.  While 8 starters are pegged to return, I assume this group will improve.  Considering the offensive firepower in the Legends Division (Northwestern,  Michigan State, and Michigan), the Golden Gopher defense will have its work cut out. 

Preseason All-Out Prediction: 2-10 (0-8)

Minnesota is facing an identity crisis that won’t rectify itself until Coach Kill gets a few of his own recruiting classes in the system. 

@USC – L

New Mexico St – W

Miami (OH) – L

North Dakota St – W

@ Michigan – L

@ Purdue – L

Bye Week

Nebraska – L

Iowa – L

@ Michigan State – L

Wisconsin – L

@ Northwestern – L

Illinois - L